The Impact of Inter-provincial Migration on the Labor Market Outcomes in Two Developed Provinces in South Africa

Abstract

This study used the South African Census 2011 data to examine the impact of interprovincial
migration on the labor market outcomes in the Western Cape and Gauteng,
the two most developed and popular inter-provincial migration destination provinces
in South Africa. In both provinces, the residents were divided into four groups: permanent
residents, intra-provincial migrants, long-term inter-provincial migrants and
short-term inter-provincial migrants. The descriptive statistics indicated that both
short- and long-term inter-provincial migrants into the two provinces were likely to
be young people aged 15-34 years, unmarried African urban residents with 11-12 educational
years on average, coming from households with three members. These interprovincial
migrants enjoyed lower unemployment rates than the permanent residents,
but the intra-provincial migrants remained the best-performing group with the lowest
unemployment rate and highest share of employed persons involved in formal sector
activities. The study also conducted a multivariate econometric analysis with probit
regressions on labor force participation likelihood, and Heckprobit regressions on employment
likelihood (conditional on labor force participation). After controlling for
differences in other characteristics (or ceteris paribus), compared to the permanent
residents, it was evident that both short- and long-term inter-provincial migrants into
Western Cape and Gauteng were about 3% significantly more likely to be employed.
After examining migrants from the Eastern Cape to the Western Cape and migrants
from Limpopo to Gauteng, the study found that both groups enjoyed a much higher
labor force participation rate (above 70%) and lower unemployment rate (30%), compared
to individuals who remained in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo (labor force participation
rate: 45%; unemployment rate: 38%).